The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Zodiac Energy Limited (NSE:ZODIAC) does use debt in its business. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Zodiac Energy
What Is Zodiac Energy's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2021 Zodiac Energy had ₹113.6m of debt, an increase on ₹58.0m, over one year. However, it also had ₹2.74m in cash, and so its net debt is ₹110.8m.
How Strong Is Zodiac Energy's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Zodiac Energy had liabilities of ₹260.0m due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹14.6m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹2.74m and ₹322.8m worth of receivables due within a year. So it can boast ₹51.0m more liquid assets than total liabilities.
This excess liquidity suggests that Zodiac Energy is taking a careful approach to debt. Because it has plenty of assets, it is unlikely to have trouble with its lenders.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Zodiac Energy's net debt of 1.5 times EBITDA suggests graceful use of debt. And the alluring interest cover (EBIT of 7.5 times interest expense) certainly does not do anything to dispel this impression. In addition to that, we're happy to report that Zodiac Energy has boosted its EBIT by 41%, thus reducing the spectre of future debt repayments. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Zodiac Energy's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. During the last three years, Zodiac Energy burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
The good news is that Zodiac Energy's demonstrated ability to grow its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But the stark truth is that we are concerned by its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow. All these things considered, it appears that Zodiac Energy can comfortably handle its current debt levels. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Zodiac Energy you should know about.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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About NSEI:ZODIAC
Zodiac Energy
Engages in the installation of solar power generation plants and related items primarily in India.
Proven track record slight.