Thermax Limited (NSE:THERMAX) Has Fared Decently But Fundamentals Look Uncertain: What Lies Ahead For The Stock?

Most readers would already know that Thermax's (NSE:THERMAX) stock increased by 7.5% over the past three months. Given that the stock prices usually follow long-term business performance, we wonder if the company's mixed financials could have any adverse effect on its current price price movement In this article, we decided to focus on Thermax's ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

See our latest analysis for Thermax

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Thermax is:

4.4% = ₹1.3b ÷ ₹30b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2020).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every ₹1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn ₹0.04 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

A Side By Side comparison of Thermax's Earnings Growth And 4.4% ROE

It is hard to argue that Thermax's ROE is much good in and of itself. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 8.3%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. Therefore, Thermax's flat earnings over the past five years can possibly be explained by the low ROE amongst other factors.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that the industry grew its earnings by11% in the same period.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Thermax is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Thermax Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Despite having a moderate three-year median payout ratio of 29% (meaning the company retains71% of profits) in the last three-year period, Thermax's earnings growth was more or les flat. So there might be other factors at play here which could potentially be hampering growth. For example, the business has faced some headwinds.

Additionally, Thermax has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years, which means that the company's management is determined to pay dividends even if it means little to no earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 26% of its profits over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that Thermax's future ROE will rise to 12% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Summary

Overall, we have mixed feelings about Thermax. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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