Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Tarmat Limited (NSE:TARMAT)
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Tarmat fair value estimate is ₹109
- With ₹87.50 share price, Tarmat appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
- Tarmat's peers are currently trading at a premium of 815% on average
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Tarmat Limited (NSE:TARMAT) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for Tarmat
Crunching The Numbers
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF (₹, Millions)||₹222.8m||₹245.1m||₹267.2m||₹289.6m||₹312.4m||₹336.1m||₹360.8m||₹386.7m||₹414.1m||₹443.0m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Est @ 11.35%||Est @ 9.99%||Est @ 9.04%||Est @ 8.37%||Est @ 7.90%||Est @ 7.57%||Est @ 7.34%||Est @ 7.18%||Est @ 7.07%||Est @ 6.99%|
|Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 16%||₹191||₹181||₹169||₹157||₹146||₹135||₹124||₹114||₹105||₹96.5|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹1.4b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (6.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 16%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹443m× (1 + 6.8%) ÷ (16%– 6.8%) = ₹4.9b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₹4.9b÷ ( 1 + 16%)10= ₹1.1b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ₹2.5b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹87.5, the company appears about fair value at a 20% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Tarmat as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 16%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.992. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Tarmat
- Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
- Debt is not viewed as a risk.
- Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
- Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
- Lack of analyst coverage makes it difficult to determine TARMAT's earnings prospects.
- No apparent threats visible for TARMAT.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Tarmat, there are three essential factors you should further research:
- Risks: For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Tarmat (2 make us uncomfortable) you should be aware of.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
- Other Top Analyst Picks: Interested to see what the analysts are thinking? Take a look at our interactive list of analysts' top stock picks to find out what they feel might have an attractive future outlook!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Tarmat Limited operates as an infrastructure company in India.
Flawless balance sheet with proven track record.