Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We note that HPL Electric & Power Limited (NSE:HPL) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for HPL Electric & Power
How Much Debt Does HPL Electric & Power Carry?
As you can see below, HPL Electric & Power had ₹5.79b of debt, at September 2020, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has ₹867.4m in cash leading to net debt of about ₹4.93b.
A Look At HPL Electric & Power's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that HPL Electric & Power had liabilities of ₹7.44b falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₹896.5m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹867.4m and ₹4.62b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling ₹2.85b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's ₹2.69b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Weak interest cover of 1.1 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.6 hit our confidence in HPL Electric & Power like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, HPL Electric & Power saw its EBIT tank 41% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since HPL Electric & Power will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, HPL Electric & Power reported free cash flow worth 16% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
On the face of it, HPL Electric & Power's interest cover left us tentative about the stock, and its EBIT growth rate was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And furthermore, its level of total liabilities also fails to instill confidence. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think HPL Electric & Power has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for HPL Electric & Power (2 are significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About NSEI:HPL
HPL Electric & Power
Manufactures and sells electric equipment under the HPL brand in India.
High growth potential with solid track record.