Hilton Metal Forging Limited's (NSE:HILTON) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up

There wouldn't be many who think Hilton Metal Forging Limited's (NSE:HILTON) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 30.7x is worth a mention when the median P/E in India is similar at about 30x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

For instance, Hilton Metal Forging's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Hilton Metal Forging

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Hilton Metal Forging will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

Hilton Metal Forging's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 52% decrease to the company's bottom line. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 25% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

In light of this, it's curious that Hilton Metal Forging's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Hilton Metal Forging revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Hilton Metal Forging (2 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.