Earnings Not Telling The Story For DCX Systems Limited (NSE:DCXINDIA) After Shares Rise 28%

DCX Systems Limited (NSE:DCXINDIA) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 28% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 83%.

Following the firm bounce in price, DCX Systems' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 41.8x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in India, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 31x and even P/E's below 17x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

Recent times haven't been advantageous for DCX Systems as its earnings have been rising slower than most other companies. It might be that many expect the uninspiring earnings performance to recover significantly, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be very nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for DCX Systems

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on DCX Systems.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

DCX Systems' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 9.9% last year. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 78% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 19% as estimated by the one analyst watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 24%, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that DCX Systems is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On DCX Systems' P/E

The large bounce in DCX Systems' shares has lifted the company's P/E to a fairly high level. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of DCX Systems' analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with DCX Systems, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than DCX Systems. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.