Bharat Dynamics' (NSE:BDL) five-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth

While Bharat Dynamics Limited (NSE:BDL) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 23% in the last quarter. But that does not change the realty that the stock's performance has been terrific, over five years. In that time, the share price has soared some 670% higher! So it might be that some shareholders are taking profits after good performance. Of course what matters most is whether the business can improve itself sustainably, thus justifying a higher price. We love happy stories like this one. The company should be really proud of that performance!

In light of the stock dropping 4.6% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

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To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over half a decade, Bharat Dynamics managed to grow its earnings per share at 7.5% a year. This EPS growth is lower than the 50% average annual increase in the share price. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. That's not necessarily surprising considering the five-year track record of earnings growth. This optimism is visible in its fairly high P/E ratio of 96.59.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. This free interactive report on Bharat Dynamics' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Bharat Dynamics the TSR over the last 5 years was 723%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Bharat Dynamics shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 13% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 52% a year, is even better. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Bharat Dynamics , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

But note: Bharat Dynamics may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.