A Look At The Fair Value Of A2Z Infra Engineering Limited (NSE:A2ZINFRA)

Want to participate in a short research study? Help shape the future of investing tools and you could win a $250 gift card!

How far off is A2Z Infra Engineering Limited (NSE:A2ZINFRA) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we’ll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We generally believe that a company’s value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for A2Z Infra Engineering

The model

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company’s last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today’s value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Levered FCF (₹, Millions) ₹301.59 ₹329.52 ₹358.35 ₹388.42 ₹420.02 ₹453.46 ₹489.00 ₹526.91 ₹567.43 ₹610.83
Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 10% Est @ 9.26% Est @ 8.75% Est @ 8.39% Est @ 8.14% Est @ 7.96% Est @ 7.84% Est @ 7.75% Est @ 7.69% Est @ 7.65%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 20.01% ₹251.31 ₹228.80 ₹207.33 ₹187.26 ₹168.73 ₹151.79 ₹136.40 ₹122.47 ₹109.90 ₹98.58

Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= ₹1.66b

“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country’s GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (7.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year ‘growth’ period, we discount future cash flows to today’s value, using a cost of equity of 20%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹611m × (1 + 7.6%) ÷ (20% – 7.6%) = ₹5.3b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = ₹₹5.3b ÷ ( 1 + 20%)10 = ₹850.93m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₹2.51b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of ₹14.27. Relative to the current share price of ₹16.8, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

NSEI:A2ZINFRA Intrinsic value, May 31st 2019
NSEI:A2ZINFRA Intrinsic value, May 31st 2019

The assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at A2Z Infra Engineering as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 20%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.449. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For A2Z Infra Engineering, There are three important aspects you should further examine:

  1. Financial Health: Does A2ZINFRA have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of A2ZINFRA? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every IN stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.