Mahindra & Mahindra (NSE:M&M) shareholders have earned a 48% CAGR over the last five years

While Mahindra & Mahindra Limited (NSE:M&M) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 16% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last half decade have been spectacular. Indeed, the share price is up a whopping 581% in that time. Arguably, the recent fall is to be expected after such a strong rise. Of course what matters most is whether the business can improve itself sustainably, thus justifying a higher price. Anyone who held for that rewarding ride would probably be keen to talk about it.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

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While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Mahindra & Mahindra achieved compound earnings per share (EPS) growth of 42% per year. This EPS growth is reasonably close to the 47% average annual increase in the share price. Therefore one could conclude that sentiment towards the shares hasn't morphed very much. In fact, the share price seems to largely reflect the EPS growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

We know that Mahindra & Mahindra has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Mahindra & Mahindra the TSR over the last 5 years was 611%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Mahindra & Mahindra shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 30% over one year. And that does include the dividend. Having said that, the five-year TSR of 48% a year, is even better. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Mahindra & Mahindra (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Indian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.