Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Exide Industries Limited (NSE:EXIDEIND)

How far off is Exide Industries Limited (NSE:EXIDEIND) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Exide Industries

Is Exide Industries fairly valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Levered FCF (₹, Millions)	₹14.7b	₹15.8b	₹17.0b	₹18.3b	₹19.6b	₹20.9b	₹22.3b	₹23.8b	₹25.4b	₹27.1b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 8.75%	Est @ 8.07%	Est @ 7.59%	Est @ 7.26%	Est @ 7.03%	Est @ 6.86%	Est @ 6.75%	Est @ 6.67%	Est @ 6.61%	Est @ 6.57%
Present Value (₹, Millions) Discounted @ 16%	₹12.7k	₹11.8k	₹11.0k	₹10.2k	₹9.4k	₹8.7k	₹8.0k	₹7.4k	₹6.8k	₹6.3k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₹92b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 6.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 16%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₂₉ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₹27b× (1 + 6.5%) ÷ 16%– 6.5%) = ₹311b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ₹311b÷ ( 1 + 16%)¹⁰= ₹72b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ₹164b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₹179, the company appears about fair value at a 7.5% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Exide Industries as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 16%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.181. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Exide Industries, There are three important aspects you should further examine:

1. Financial Health: Does EXIDEIND have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of EXIDEIND? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NSEI every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.