Atul Auto Limited's (NSE:ATULAUTO) Stock Is Rallying But Financials Look Ambiguous: Will The Momentum Continue?

Most readers would already be aware that Atul Auto's (NSE:ATULAUTO) stock increased significantly by 33% over the past three months. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. Specifically, we decided to study Atul Auto's ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Atul Auto

How Is ROE Calculated?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Atul Auto is:

4.0% = ₹172m ÷ ₹4.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every ₹1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of ₹0.04.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Atul Auto's Earnings Growth And 4.0% ROE

As you can see, Atul Auto's ROE looks pretty weak. Even when compared to the industry average of 23%, the ROE figure is pretty disappointing. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 47% seen by Atul Auto was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared Atul Auto's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 25% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. If you're wondering about Atul Auto's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is Atul Auto Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Atul Auto doesn't pay any regular dividends, meaning that potentially all of its profits are being reinvested in the business, which doesn't explain why the company's earnings have shrunk if it is retaining all of its profits. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Summary

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Atul Auto can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of reinvestment, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping any benefit to its investors, and moreover, its having a negative impact on the earnings growth. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. To know the 3 risks we have identified for Atul Auto visit our risks dashboard for free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.