Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Zanlakol Ltd (TLV:ZNKL) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Zanlakol Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of September 2020 Zanlakol had ₪64.9m of debt, an increase on ₪61.6m, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₪1.38m, its net debt is less, at about ₪63.5m.
A Look At Zanlakol's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Zanlakol had liabilities of ₪130.4m falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₪45.2m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₪1.38m as well as receivables valued at ₪58.3m due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₪116.0m.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Zanlakol has a market capitalization of ₪247.8m, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Zanlakol has net debt of just 1.4 times EBITDA, indicating that it is certainly not a reckless borrower. And it boasts interest cover of 9.3 times, which is more than adequate. Fortunately, Zanlakol grew its EBIT by 6.6% in the last year, making that debt load look even more manageable. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Zanlakol will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Zanlakol recorded free cash flow of 30% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
On our analysis Zanlakol's interest cover should signal that it won't have too much trouble with its debt. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to convert EBIT to free cash flow. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Zanlakol's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Zanlakol that you should be aware of before investing here.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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About TASE:ZNKL
Zanlakol
Engages in the development, production, marketing, and sale of canned food products in Israel.
Flawless balance sheet, good value and pays a dividend.