Tamar Petroleum's (TLV:TMRP) Soft Earnings Don't Show The Whole Picture

June 03, 2022
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The market shrugged off the recent earnings report from Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TLV:TMRP), despite the profit numbers being soft. Our analysis suggests that investors may have noticed some promising signs beyond the statutory profit figures.

View our latest analysis for Tamar Petroleum

TASE:TMRP Earnings and Revenue History June 3rd 2022

A Closer Look At Tamar Petroleum's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Tamar Petroleum has an accrual ratio of -0.10 for the year to March 2022. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. To wit, it produced free cash flow of US$167m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of US$51.4m. Tamar Petroleum's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Tamar Petroleum.

Our Take On Tamar Petroleum's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, Tamar Petroleum has perfectly satisfactory free cash flow relative to profit. Based on this observation, we consider it likely that Tamar Petroleum's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! On the other hand, its EPS actually shrunk in the last twelve months. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. For example, we've found that Tamar Petroleum has 4 warning signs (2 don't sit too well with us!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Tamar Petroleum's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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