AIB Group plc (ISE:A5G) Just Reported Half-Yearly Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Last week, you might have seen that AIB Group plc (ISE:A5G) released its half-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.2% to €6.58 in the past week. AIB Group reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of €2.2b and statutory earnings per share of €0.93, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from eleven analysts covering AIB Group is for revenues of €4.39b in 2025. This implies a noticeable 4.4% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 23% to €0.75 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €4.42b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.78 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for AIB Group

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €7.29, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AIB Group at €8.40 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €6.20. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 8.7% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 26% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.3% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that AIB Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for AIB Group. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €7.29, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AIB Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - AIB Group has 2 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.