Arwana Citramulia Valuation

Is ARNA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARNA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ARNA (IDR715) is trading below our estimate of fair value (IDR1383.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARNA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARNA?

Key metric: As ARNA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ARNA. This is calculated by dividing ARNA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ARNA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.5x
EarningsRp408.46b
Market CapRp5.09t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ARNA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ARNA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.1x
MLIA Mulia Industrindo
5.3xn/aRp2.1t
TOTO Surya Toto Indonesia
9xn/aRp2.3t
AMFG PThimas Flat Glass
7.3xn/aRp2.0t
IKAI Intikeramik Alamasri Industri
30.8xn/aRp186.3b
ARNA Arwana Citramulia
12.5x16.0%Rp5.1t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ARNA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the peer average (13.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ARNA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Building Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ARNA 12.5xIndustry Avg. 18.5xNo. of Companies30PE01224364860+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ARNA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the Asian Building industry average (18.5x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARNA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARNA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.5x
Fair PE Ratio11.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ARNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ARNA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentRp715.00
Rp920.00
+28.7%
2.2%Rp940.00Rp900.00n/a2
Dec ’25Rp740.00
Rp920.00
+24.3%
2.2%Rp940.00Rp900.00n/a2
Nov ’25Rp765.00
Rp920.00
+20.3%
2.2%Rp940.00Rp900.00n/a2
Feb ’25Rp685.00
Rp1,000.00
+46.0%
10.0%Rp1,100.00Rp900.00n/a2
Jan ’25Rp665.00
Rp1,000.00
+50.4%
10.0%Rp1,100.00Rp900.00n/a2
Dec ’24Rp660.00
Rp1,000.00
+51.5%
10.0%Rp1,100.00Rp900.00Rp740.002
Nov ’24Rp655.00
Rp1,000.00
+52.7%
10.0%Rp1,100.00Rp900.00Rp765.002
Oct ’24Rp770.00
Rp1,225.00
+59.1%
10.2%Rp1,350.00Rp1,100.00Rp700.002
Sep ’24Rp745.00
Rp1,225.00
+64.4%
10.2%Rp1,350.00Rp1,100.00Rp695.002
Aug ’24Rp810.00
Rp1,225.00
+51.2%
10.2%Rp1,350.00Rp1,100.00Rp710.002
Jul ’24Rp885.00
Rp1,360.00
+53.7%
0.7%Rp1,370.00Rp1,350.00Rp600.002
Jun ’24Rp900.00
Rp1,360.00
+51.1%
0.7%Rp1,370.00Rp1,350.00Rp645.002
Apr ’24Rp1,005.00
Rp1,333.33
+32.7%
1.8%Rp1,350.00Rp1,300.00Rp700.003
Mar ’24Rp1,020.00
Rp1,333.33
+30.7%
1.8%Rp1,350.00Rp1,300.00Rp710.003
Feb ’24Rp1,030.00
Rp1,333.33
+29.4%
1.8%Rp1,350.00Rp1,300.00Rp685.003
Jan ’24Rp995.00
Rp1,333.33
+34.0%
1.8%Rp1,350.00Rp1,300.00Rp665.003
Dec ’23Rp1,025.00
Rp1,333.33
+30.1%
1.8%Rp1,350.00Rp1,300.00Rp660.003

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.


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