Arwana Citramulia Valuation

Is ARNA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ARNA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ARNA (IDR715) is trading below our estimate of fair value (IDR1383.58)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ARNA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ARNA?

Key metric: As ARNA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ARNA. This is calculated by dividing ARNA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ARNA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	12.5x
Earnings	Rp408.46b
Market Cap	Rp5.09t

ARNA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7.8x
PEG Ratio	0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ARNA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ARNA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	13.1x
MLIA Mulia Industrindo	5.3x	n/a	Rp2.1t
TOTO Surya Toto Indonesia	9x	n/a	Rp2.3t
AMFG PThimas Flat Glass	7.3x	n/a	Rp2.0t
IKAI Intikeramik Alamasri Industri	30.8x	n/a	Rp186.3b
ARNA Arwana Citramulia	12.5x	16.0%	Rp5.1t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ARNA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the peer average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ARNA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Building Industry?

5 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

5 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ARNA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the Asian Building industry average (18.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ARNA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ARNA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	12.5x
Fair PE Ratio	11.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ARNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ARNA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	Rp715.00	Rp920.00 +28.7%	2.2%	Rp940.00	Rp900.00	n/a	2
Dec ’25	Rp740.00	Rp920.00 +24.3%	2.2%	Rp940.00	Rp900.00	n/a	2
Nov ’25	Rp765.00	Rp920.00 +20.3%	2.2%	Rp940.00	Rp900.00	n/a	2
Feb ’25	Rp685.00	Rp1,000.00 +46.0%	10.0%	Rp1,100.00	Rp900.00	n/a	2
Jan ’25	Rp665.00	Rp1,000.00 +50.4%	10.0%	Rp1,100.00	Rp900.00	n/a	2
Dec ’24	Rp660.00	Rp1,000.00 +51.5%	10.0%	Rp1,100.00	Rp900.00	Rp740.00	2
Nov ’24	Rp655.00	Rp1,000.00 +52.7%	10.0%	Rp1,100.00	Rp900.00	Rp765.00	2
Oct ’24	Rp770.00	Rp1,225.00 +59.1%	10.2%	Rp1,350.00	Rp1,100.00	Rp700.00	2
Sep ’24	Rp745.00	Rp1,225.00 +64.4%	10.2%	Rp1,350.00	Rp1,100.00	Rp695.00	2
Aug ’24	Rp810.00	Rp1,225.00 +51.2%	10.2%	Rp1,350.00	Rp1,100.00	Rp710.00	2
Jul ’24	Rp885.00	Rp1,360.00 +53.7%	0.7%	Rp1,370.00	Rp1,350.00	Rp600.00	2
Jun ’24	Rp900.00	Rp1,360.00 +51.1%	0.7%	Rp1,370.00	Rp1,350.00	Rp645.00	2
Apr ’24	Rp1,005.00	Rp1,333.33 +32.7%	1.8%	Rp1,350.00	Rp1,300.00	Rp700.00	3
Mar ’24	Rp1,020.00	Rp1,333.33 +30.7%	1.8%	Rp1,350.00	Rp1,300.00	Rp710.00	3
Feb ’24	Rp1,030.00	Rp1,333.33 +29.4%	1.8%	Rp1,350.00	Rp1,300.00	Rp685.00	3
Jan ’24	Rp995.00	Rp1,333.33 +34.0%	1.8%	Rp1,350.00	Rp1,300.00	Rp665.00	3
Dec ’23	Rp1,025.00	Rp1,333.33 +30.1%	1.8%	Rp1,350.00	Rp1,300.00	Rp660.00	3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.