Varteks d.d.'s (ZGSE:VART) 100% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Varteks d.d. (ZGSE:VART) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 100% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 11% in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Varteks d.d's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Croatia's Luxury industry is similar at about 0.7x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

See our latest analysis for Varteks d.d

How Varteks d.d Has Been Performing

We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, Varteks d.d's revenue has been unimpressive. Perhaps the market believes the recent run-of-the-mill revenue performance isn't enough to outperform the industry, which has kept the P/S muted. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Varteks d.d's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

Varteks d.d's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any revenue growth to speak of for the company over the past year. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with revenue down 36% overall from three years ago. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 9.4% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Varteks d.d's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Varteks d.d appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

The fact that Varteks d.d currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 3 warning signs for Varteks d.d that you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Varteks d.d, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.