CGN Power Co., Ltd.

SZSC:1816 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$196.2b

CGN Power Valuation

Is 1816 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1816 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 1816 (HK$2.66) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$7.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1816 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1816?

Key metric: As 1816 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1816. This is calculated by dividing 1816's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1816's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.4x
EarningsCN¥11.01b
Market CapCN¥182.67b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1816's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1816 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.1x
902 Huaneng Power International
17.7x34.6%HK$101.0b
836 China Resources Power Holdings
6.6x12.0%HK$90.1b
1071 Huadian Power International
8x24.0%HK$54.7b
991 Datang International Power Generation
8.1xn/aHK$45.8b
1816 CGN Power
11.4x6.7%HK$196.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1816 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the peer average (10.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1816's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Renewable Energy Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
1816 11.4xIndustry Avg. 13.7xNo. of Companies25PE01020304050+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1816 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the Asian Renewable Energy industry average (13.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1816's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1816 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.4x
Fair PE Ratio9.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1816 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1816 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$2.66
HK$3.44
+29.3%
19.1%HK$4.68HK$2.22n/a12
Nov ’25HK$2.77
HK$3.48
+25.5%
18.9%HK$4.68HK$2.22n/a11
Oct ’25HK$3.00
HK$3.48
+15.8%
18.5%HK$4.60HK$2.32n/a11
Sep ’25HK$3.18
HK$3.54
+11.2%
15.8%HK$4.60HK$2.60n/a11
Aug ’25HK$3.28
HK$3.25
-1.0%
21.1%HK$4.60HK$2.10n/a12
Jul ’25HK$3.44
HK$3.10
-9.9%
17.6%HK$3.90HK$2.10n/a12
Jun ’25HK$2.99
HK$2.96
-1.1%
16.9%HK$3.90HK$2.10n/a12
May ’25HK$2.63
HK$2.79
+5.9%
13.1%HK$3.27HK$2.10n/a11
Apr ’25HK$2.32
HK$2.43
+4.9%
13.1%HK$3.07HK$1.81n/a11
Mar ’25HK$2.36
HK$2.38
+0.7%
9.8%HK$2.60HK$1.81n/a12
Feb ’25HK$2.19
HK$2.38
+8.5%
9.8%HK$2.60HK$1.81n/a12
Jan ’25HK$2.04
HK$2.34
+14.8%
8.2%HK$2.60HK$1.83n/a12
Dec ’24HK$1.87
HK$2.34
+25.2%
8.9%HK$2.60HK$1.79n/a11
Nov ’24HK$1.88
HK$2.34
+24.4%
8.6%HK$2.60HK$1.79HK$2.7712
Oct ’24HK$2.03
HK$2.34
+15.2%
8.6%HK$2.60HK$1.79HK$3.0012
Sep ’24HK$1.96
HK$2.34
+19.3%
8.6%HK$2.60HK$1.79HK$3.1812
Aug ’24HK$1.94
HK$2.27
+16.8%
11.9%HK$2.60HK$1.60HK$3.2812
Jul ’24HK$1.89
HK$2.28
+20.7%
12.4%HK$2.60HK$1.60HK$3.4412
Jun ’24HK$1.89
HK$2.28
+20.7%
12.4%HK$2.60HK$1.60HK$2.9912
May ’24HK$2.07
HK$2.20
+6.2%
13.4%HK$2.60HK$1.60HK$2.6312
Apr ’24HK$1.88
HK$2.22
+18.3%
12.6%HK$2.60HK$1.60HK$2.3211
Mar ’24HK$1.78
HK$2.24
+25.6%
12.7%HK$2.60HK$1.70HK$2.3610
Feb ’24HK$1.86
HK$2.24
+20.2%
12.7%HK$2.60HK$1.70HK$2.1910
Jan ’24HK$1.86
HK$2.25
+20.8%
13.0%HK$2.60HK$1.70HK$2.0410
Dec ’23HK$1.82
HK$2.25
+23.4%
13.0%HK$2.60HK$1.70HK$1.8710
Nov ’23HK$1.63
HK$2.25
+37.8%
13.0%HK$2.60HK$1.70HK$1.8810

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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