China Gas Holdings (SEHK:384) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 384 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

384 (HK$12.02) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$35.14)

384 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	4/6

384 Stock Overview

China Gas Holdings Limited operates as a gas operator and service provider in the People’s Republic of China.

Rewards

Trading at 65.8% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 12.06% per year

Risk Analysis

Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow

Dividend of 4.58% is not well covered by earnings

Profit margins (8.7%) are lower than last year (15%)

China Gas Holdings Competitors

Kunlun Energy

SEHK:135

HK$56.1b

China Resources Gas Group

SEHK:1193

HK$86.9b

Beijing Enterprises Holdings

SEHK:392

HK$35.3b

ENN Energy Holdings

SEHK:2688

HK$149.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for China Gas Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	HK$12.02
52 Week High	HK$25.70
52 Week Low	HK$8.56
Beta	0.52
1 Month Change	5.81%
3 Month Change	17.15%
1 Year Change	-49.71%
3 Year Change	-59.66%
5 Year Change	-26.89%
Change since IPO	1,402.50%

Shareholder Returns

	384	HK Gas Utilities	HK Market
7D	3.8%	5.4%	3.5%
1Y	-49.7%	-23.3%	-20.1%

Return vs Industry: 384 underperformed the Hong Kong Gas Utilities industry which returned -26.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 384 underperformed the Hong Kong Market which returned -21.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 384's price volatile compared to industry and market?
384 volatility
384 Average Weekly Movement	6.5%
Gas Utilities Industry Average Movement	4.9%
Market Average Movement	6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in HK Market	13.6%
10% least volatile stocks in HK Market	3.4%

Stable Share Price: 384 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Hong Kong stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 384's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1995	n/a	Ming Hui Liu	https://www.chinagasholdings.com.hk

China Gas Holdings Limited operates as a gas operator and service provider in the People’s Republic of China. The company invests in, constructs, operates, and maintains city and town gas pipeline infrastructure facilities, gas terminals, storage and transportation facilities, and gas logistics systems; transmits natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to residential, industrial, and commercial customers; constructs and operates compressed natural gas/liquefied natural gas refilling stations; and develops technologies related to natural gas and LPG. It is also involved in the investment in petrochemical facilities of storage and transportation; producing and storing LPG and chemical products, as well as propane and butane; CBM business; exploration and production of coal bed methane; and gas station administration, management, and consultancy services.

China Gas Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do China Gas Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
384 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	HK$64.92b
Earnings (TTM)	HK$7.66b
Revenue (TTM)	HK$88.23b

8.5x

P/E Ratio

0.7x

P/S Ratio

Is 384 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
384 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	HK$88.23b
Cost of Revenue	HK$72.49b
Gross Profit	HK$15.74b
Other Expenses	HK$8.08b
Earnings	HK$7.66b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.42
Gross Margin	17.84%
Net Profit Margin	8.68%
Debt/Equity Ratio	77.9%

How did 384 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.6%

Current Dividend Yield

39%

Payout Ratio

Does 384 pay a reliable dividends?

See 384 dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy 384 by to receive an upcoming dividend?
China Gas Holdings dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Aug 23 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Oct 03 2022
Days until Ex dividend	55 days
Days until Dividend pay date	96 days

Does 384 pay a reliable dividends?

See 384 dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 384 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 384?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 384. This is calculated by dividing 384's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 384's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	HK$64.92b

384 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	10.3x
PEG Ratio	0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 384's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

384 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 384 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	10.7x
135 Kunlun Energy	9.3x	5.1%	HK$56.1b
1193 China Resources Gas Group	13.6x	6.9%	HK$86.9b
392 Beijing Enterprises Holdings	3.6x	1.7%	HK$35.3b
2688 ENN Energy Holdings	16.5x	8.3%	HK$149.6b
384 China Gas Holdings	8.5x	12.1%	HK$64.9b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 384 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the peer average (10.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 384's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Gas Utilities Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 384 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the Hong Kong Gas Utilities industry average (9.2x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 384's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

384 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	8.5x
Fair PE Ratio	13.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 384 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 384 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 384 (HK$12.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$35.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 384 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 384 is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.7x)

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Future Growth

How is China Gas Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 17 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

12.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 384's forecast earnings growth (12.1% per year) is above the savings rate (1.5%).

Earnings vs Market: 384's earnings (12.1% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (17.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 384's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 384's revenue (9.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (10.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 384's revenue (9.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 384's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (13.5%).

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Past Performance

How has China Gas Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

12.1%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 384 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 384's current net profit margins (8.7%) are lower than last year (15%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 384's earnings have grown by 12.1% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 384's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: 384 had negative earnings growth (-26.9%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Gas Utilities industry average (18.1%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: 384's Return on Equity (12.2%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is China Gas Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 384's short term assets (HK$55.4B) exceed its short term liabilities (HK$54.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: 384's short term assets (HK$55.4B) exceed its long term liabilities (HK$36.8B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 384's net debt to equity ratio (63.8%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: 384's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 98.6% to 77.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 384's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (9.9%).

Interest Coverage: 384's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (6.8x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is China Gas Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

4.58%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 384's dividend (4.58%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (2.7%).

High Dividend: 384's dividend (4.58%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (7.78%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 384's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 384's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (39.5%), 384's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: 384 is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

8.5yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Ming Hui Liu (58 yo)

9.83yrs

Tenure

HK$18,200,000

Compensation

Mr. Ming Hui Liu serves as the Managing Director and President of China Gas Holdings Limited since August 2012. He served as the Managing Director of China Gas Holdings Ltd. from July 2002 to January 25, 2...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Ming Hui's total compensation ($USD2.32M) is above average for companies of similar size in the Hong Kong market ($USD591.24K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Ming Hui's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 384's management team is seasoned and experienced (8.5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 384's board of directors are considered experienced (8.7 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/28 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/28 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2022/03/31