Stock Analysis

Kunlun Energy Company Limited's (HKG:135) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 97% Above Its Share Price

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SEHK:135
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Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Kunlun Energy Company Limited (HKG:135) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Kunlun Energy

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥5.46b CN¥5.03b CN¥4.57b CN¥4.45b CN¥4.39b CN¥4.37b CN¥4.38b CN¥4.41b CN¥4.45b CN¥4.50b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ -1.27% Est @ -0.4% Est @ 0.2% Est @ 0.63% Est @ 0.93% Est @ 1.13%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 6.3% CN¥5.1k CN¥4.5k CN¥3.8k CN¥3.5k CN¥3.2k CN¥3.0k CN¥2.9k CN¥2.7k CN¥2.6k CN¥2.4k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥34b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥4.5b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (6.3%– 1.6%) = CN¥98b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥98b÷ ( 1 + 6.3%)10= CN¥53b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥87b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$5.7, the company appears quite good value at a 49% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
SEHK:135 Discounted Cash Flow November 16th 2022

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Kunlun Energy as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Kunlun Energy

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year is below its 5-year average.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Gas Utilities market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market.

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Kunlun Energy, we've compiled three additional items you should look at:

  1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Kunlun Energy , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 135's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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