China Ocean Group Development Limited's (HKG:8047) 30% Dip Still Leaving Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over Its P/SRatio

China Ocean Group Development Limited (HKG:8047) shares have had a horrible month, losing 30% after a relatively good period beforehand. To make matters worse, the recent drop has wiped out a year's worth of gains with the share price now back where it started a year ago.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think China Ocean Group Development's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x is worth a mention when the median P/S in Hong Kong's Logistics industry is similar at about 0.2x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

View our latest analysis for China Ocean Group Development

What Does China Ocean Group Development's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

With revenue growth that's exceedingly strong of late, China Ocean Group Development has been doing very well. The P/S is probably moderate because investors think this strong revenue growth might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for China Ocean Group Development, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like China Ocean Group Development's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew revenue by an impressive 76% last year. Still, revenue has fallen 36% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 14% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that China Ocean Group Development is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

China Ocean Group Development's plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We find it unexpected that China Ocean Group Development trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with China Ocean Group Development (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on China Ocean Group Development, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com