Janco Holdings Limited's (HKG:8035) 26% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Those holding Janco Holdings Limited (HKG:8035) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 26% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. But the last month did very little to improve the 61% share price decline over the last year.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Janco Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.1x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Logistics industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.2x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

See our latest analysis for Janco Holdings

How Has Janco Holdings Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Janco Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Janco Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Janco Holdings' Revenue Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Janco Holdings would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 32% decrease to the company's top line. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 52% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 10% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Janco Holdings' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Janco Holdings' P/S

Janco Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We find it unexpected that Janco Holdings trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Janco Holdings that you need to be mindful of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.