MTR Corporation Limited's (HKG:66) Stock On An Uptrend: Could Fundamentals Be Driving The Momentum?

MTR's (HKG:66) stock is up by a considerable 19% over the past three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. In this article, we decided to focus on MTR's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

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How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for MTR is:

8.4% = HK$18b ÷ HK$211b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2025).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every HK$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of HK$0.08.

See our latest analysis for MTR

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of MTR's Earnings Growth And 8.4% ROE

When you first look at it, MTR's ROE doesn't look that attractive. Although a closer study shows that the company's ROE is higher than the industry average of 6.2% which we definitely can't overlook. Even more so after seeing MTR's exceptional 35% net income growth over the past five years. That being said, the company does have a slightly low ROE to begin with, just that it is higher than the industry average. Therefore, the growth in earnings could also be the result of other factors. For example, it is possible that the broader industry is going through a high growth phase, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

Given that the industry shrunk its earnings at a rate of 0.3% over the last few years, the net income growth of the company is quite impressive.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. If you're wondering about MTR's's valuation, check out this gauge of its price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to its industry.

Is MTR Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

MTR has a significant three-year median payout ratio of 83%, meaning the company only retains 17% of its income. This implies that the company has been able to achieve high earnings growth despite returning most of its profits to shareholders.

Moreover, MTR is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 70% of its profits over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that MTR's future ROE will drop to 5.5% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that MTR has some positive attributes. Especially the substantial growth in earnings backed by a decent ROE. Despite the company reinvesting only a small portion of its profits, it still has managed to grow its earnings so that is appreciable. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.