Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Kerry Logistics Network Limited's (HKG:636) Shares

It's not a stretch to say that Kerry Logistics Network Limited's (HKG:636) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Hong Kong, where the median P/E ratio is around 10x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Kerry Logistics Network could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn around. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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Is There Some Growth For Kerry Logistics Network?

Kerry Logistics Network's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 34% decrease to the company's bottom line. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 90% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 0.3% per year as estimated by the eight analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 12% growth each year, that's a disappointing outcome.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Kerry Logistics Network's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Kerry Logistics Network's P/E

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Kerry Logistics Network currently trades on a higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. When we see a poor outlook with earnings heading backwards, we suspect share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Kerry Logistics Network that you need to be mindful of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Kerry Logistics Network, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.