Revenues Not Telling The Story For YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology Limited (HKG:6123) After Shares Rise 44%

YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology Limited (HKG:6123) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 44% gain and recovering from prior weakness. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 37%.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology's P/S ratio of 0.1x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Logistics industry in Hong Kong is also close to 0.3x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Check out our latest analysis for YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology

What Does YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology's Recent Performance Look Like?

We'd have to say that with no tangible growth over the last year, YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology's revenue has been unimpressive. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this benign revenue growth rate might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. Those who are bullish on YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology will be hoping that this isn't the case, so that they can pick up the stock at a lower valuation.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/S like YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology's is when the company's growth is tracking the industry closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's top line as the year before. Whilst it's an improvement, it wasn't enough to get the company out of the hole it was in, with revenue down 1.5% overall from three years ago. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 10% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

The fact that YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for YTO International Express and Supply Chain Technology (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.