Frontier Services Group Limited's (HKG:500) Shares Climb 29% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Frontier Services Group Limited (HKG:500) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 29% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 26% over that time.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Frontier Services Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.5x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Logistics industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.2x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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Check out our latest analysis for Frontier Services Group

How Has Frontier Services Group Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Frontier Services Group over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Frontier Services Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For Frontier Services Group?

Frontier Services Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 7.3%. At least revenue has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 9.8% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Frontier Services Group's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Frontier Services Group's P/S

Frontier Services Group's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

The fact that Frontier Services Group currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

Plus, you should also learn about these 2 warning signs we've spotted with Frontier Services Group.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Frontier Services Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.