Stock Analysis

The past five years for China Merchants Port Holdings (HKG:144) investors has not been profitable

Published
SEHK:144

It's possible to achieve returns close to the market-weighted average return by buying an index fund. A talented investor can beat the market with a diversified portfolio, but even then, some stocks will under-perform. The China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited (HKG:144) stock price is down 30% over five years, but the total shareholder return is -0.8% once you include the dividend. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 1.0%.

So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

View our latest analysis for China Merchants Port Holdings

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the five years over which the share price declined, China Merchants Port Holdings' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 9.3% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 7% compound annual share price fall. So the market may previously have expected a drop, or else it expects the situation will improve.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

SEHK:144 Earnings Per Share Growth October 30th 2023

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free interactive report on China Merchants Port Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, China Merchants Port Holdings' TSR for the last 5 years was -0.8%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

China Merchants Port Holdings shareholders gained a total return of 14% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. But at least that's still a gain! Over five years the TSR has been a reduction of 0.2% per year, over five years. It could well be that the business is stabilizing. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that China Merchants Port Holdings is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.