Calculating The Fair Value Of K & P International Holdings Limited (HKG:675)

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of K & P International Holdings Limited (HKG:675) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for K & P International Holdings

What's the estimated valuation?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (HK$, Millions)	HK$23.5m	HK$19.2m	HK$16.8m	HK$15.4m	HK$14.6m	HK$14.1m	HK$13.8m	HK$13.7m	HK$13.7m	HK$13.8m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ -27.06%	Est @ -18.49%	Est @ -12.49%	Est @ -8.29%	Est @ -5.35%	Est @ -3.29%	Est @ -1.85%	Est @ -0.84%	Est @ -0.14%	Est @ 0.36%
Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 8.7%	HK$21.7	HK$16.2	HK$13.1	HK$11.0	HK$9.6	HK$8.5	HK$7.7	HK$7.0	HK$6.5	HK$6.0

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = HK$107m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.7%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$14m× (1 + 1.5%) ÷ (8.7%– 1.5%) = HK$194m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= HK$194m÷ ( 1 + 8.7%)¹⁰= HK$84m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is HK$191m. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$0.6, the company appears about fair value at a 13% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at K & P International Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.176. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For K & P International Holdings, there are three relevant aspects you should assess:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for K & P International Holdings that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for 675's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Hong Kong stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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