Confidence Intelligence Holdings Limited's (HKG:1967) Financials Are Too Obscure To Link With Current Share Price Momentum: What's In Store For the Stock?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
January 18, 2022
SEHK:1967
Source: Shutterstock

Most readers would already be aware that Confidence Intelligence Holdings' (HKG:1967) stock increased significantly by 44% over the past three months. However, we decided to pay attention to the company's fundamentals which don't appear to give a clear sign about the company's financial health. Specifically, we decided to study Confidence Intelligence Holdings' ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

Check out our latest analysis for Confidence Intelligence Holdings

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Confidence Intelligence Holdings is:

5.2% = CN¥16m ÷ CN¥302m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2021).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. Another way to think of that is that for every HK$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn HK$0.05 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Confidence Intelligence Holdings' Earnings Growth And 5.2% ROE

When you first look at it, Confidence Intelligence Holdings' ROE doesn't look that attractive. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 9.3%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. For this reason, Confidence Intelligence Holdings' five year net income decline of 25% is not surprising given its lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For example, it is possible that the business has allocated capital poorly or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

So, as a next step, we compared Confidence Intelligence Holdings' performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 3.0% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
SEHK:1967 Past Earnings Growth January 18th 2022

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is Confidence Intelligence Holdings fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Confidence Intelligence Holdings Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Because Confidence Intelligence Holdings doesn't pay any dividends, we infer that it is retaining all of its profits, which is rather perplexing when you consider the fact that there is no earnings growth to show for it. It looks like there might be some other reasons to explain the lack in that respect. For example, the business could be in decline.

Conclusion

On the whole, we feel that the performance shown by Confidence Intelligence Holdings can be open to many interpretations. While the company does have a high rate of profit retention, its low rate of return is probably hampering its earnings growth. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. Our risks dashboard would have the 4 risks we have identified for Confidence Intelligence Holdings.

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