Even With A 26% Surge, Cautious Investors Are Not Rewarding ICO Group Limited's (HKG:1460) Performance Completely

Despite an already strong run, ICO Group Limited (HKG:1460) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 26% in the last thirty days. Notwithstanding the latest gain, the annual share price return of 3.9% isn't as impressive.

Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that ICO Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.6x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Hong Kong, where the median P/E ratio is around 11x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

Recent times have been quite advantageous for ICO Group as its earnings have been rising very briskly. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

See our latest analysis for ICO Group

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on ICO Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the market for P/E ratios like ICO Group's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 142% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 135% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 20% shows it's noticeably more attractive on an annualised basis.

With this information, we find it interesting that ICO Group is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It may be that most investors are not convinced the company can maintain its recent growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

ICO Group appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump getting its P/E back in line with most other companies. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of ICO Group revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't contributing to its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given they look better than current market expectations. When we see strong earnings with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. It appears some are indeed anticipating earnings instability, because the persistence of these recent medium-term conditions would normally provide a boost to the share price.

You need to take note of risks, for example - ICO Group has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is concerning) we think you should know about.

If you're unsure about the strength of ICO Group's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.