GCL Technology Holdings Limited

SZSC:3800 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$35.5b

GCL Technology Holdings Valuation

Is 3800 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3800 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3800 (HK$1.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$19.99)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3800 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3800?

Key metric: As 3800 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 3800. This is calculated by dividing 3800's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 3800's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.5x
SalesCN¥21.62b
Market CapCN¥33.08b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 3800's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 3800 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.5x
968 Xinyi Solar Holdings
1.1x15.2%HK$28.7b
6865 Flat Glass Group
1.3x18.0%HK$55.5b
522 ASMPT
2.2x13.3%HK$29.6b
1665 Pentamaster International
1.3x14.3%HK$1.5b
3800 GCL Technology Holdings
1.5x20.1%HK$35.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 3800 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the peer average (1.5x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 3800's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Semiconductor Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
757 Solargiga Energy Holdings
0.06xn/aUS$48.27m
1305 Wai Chi Holdings
0.09xn/aUS$27.11m
8257 Genes Tech Group Holdings
0.2xn/aUS$7.84m
243 QPL International Holdings
0.2xn/aUS$6.57m
3800 1.5xIndustry Avg. 1.3xNo. of Companies6PS012345+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 3800 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the Hong Kong Semiconductor industry average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3800's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3800 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.5x
Fair PS Ratio1.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 3800 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3800 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$1.32
HK$1.78
+34.5%
17.7%HK$2.26HK$1.08n/a13
Nov ’25HK$1.65
HK$1.77
+7.5%
17.3%HK$2.30HK$1.10n/a13
Oct ’25HK$1.40
HK$1.55
+10.6%
18.2%HK$2.02HK$1.11n/a13
Sep ’25HK$1.16
HK$1.61
+39.0%
16.0%HK$2.00HK$1.21n/a12
Aug ’25HK$1.10
HK$1.62
+46.9%
13.3%HK$1.81HK$1.18n/a12
Jul ’25HK$1.16
HK$1.67
+43.9%
11.1%HK$1.81HK$1.19n/a10
Jun ’25HK$1.46
HK$1.63
+11.5%
14.2%HK$1.82HK$1.11n/a12
May ’25HK$1.17
HK$1.62
+38.1%
17.1%HK$2.00HK$1.11n/a11
Apr ’25HK$1.28
HK$1.75
+36.7%
26.9%HK$3.02HK$1.11n/a11
Mar ’25HK$1.09
HK$1.68
+53.8%
28.1%HK$3.03HK$1.12n/a11
Feb ’25HK$0.93
HK$1.72
+85.4%
27.9%HK$3.05HK$1.13n/a10
Jan ’25HK$1.24
HK$1.86
+50.1%
28.6%HK$3.05HK$1.13n/a10
Dec ’24HK$1.08
HK$1.88
+74.5%
29.0%HK$3.03HK$1.12n/a9
Nov ’24HK$1.11
HK$1.89
+69.9%
29.8%HK$2.98HK$1.10HK$1.658
Oct ’24HK$1.46
HK$2.03
+39.2%
28.4%HK$2.98HK$1.20HK$1.408
Sep ’24HK$1.36
HK$2.61
+91.6%
25.1%HK$3.87HK$1.68HK$1.168
Aug ’24HK$1.64
HK$3.43
+108.9%
31.3%HK$5.50HK$1.74HK$1.108
Jul ’24HK$1.81
HK$3.45
+90.8%
26.4%HK$5.20HK$2.16HK$1.168
Jun ’24HK$1.58
HK$3.67
+132.5%
25.6%HK$5.34HK$2.13HK$1.467
May ’24HK$1.96
HK$3.85
+96.6%
24.5%HK$5.47HK$2.16HK$1.178
Apr ’24HK$2.03
HK$4.04
+99.0%
22.6%HK$5.50HK$2.16HK$1.289
Mar ’24HK$2.14
HK$3.97
+85.7%
21.3%HK$5.00HK$2.16HK$1.099
Feb ’24HK$2.41
HK$3.96
+64.2%
21.9%HK$5.05HK$2.16HK$0.939
Jan ’24HK$1.98
HK$4.16
+110.1%
14.0%HK$5.15HK$3.46HK$1.248
Dec ’23HK$2.38
HK$4.11
+72.7%
13.1%HK$4.96HK$3.33HK$1.087
Nov ’23HK$2.14
HK$4.11
+92.0%
13.1%HK$4.96HK$3.33HK$1.117

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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