Earnings Miss: ASMPT Limited Missed EPS By 88% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that ASMPT Limited (HKG:522) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.6% to HK$83.75 in the past week. Results overall were not great, with earnings of HK$0.06 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit HK$3.3b and were slightly better than forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for ASMPT

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ASMPT from 19 analysts is for revenues of HK$16.3b in 2025. If met, it would imply a major 23% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 314% to HK$4.16. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of HK$16.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of HK$4.47 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at HK$106, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic ASMPT analyst has a price target of HK$150 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$73.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that ASMPT is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 18% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 0.6% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 15% per year. So it looks like ASMPT is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple ASMPT analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for ASMPT that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.