Stock Analysis

GCL Technology Holdings (HKG:3800) shareholder returns have been solid, earning 239% in 5 years

SEHK:3800
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The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. For example, the GCL Technology Holdings Limited (HKG:3800) share price has soared 224% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. On top of that, the share price is up 42% in about a quarter. But this move may well have been assisted by the reasonably buoyant market (up 17% in 90 days).

Since the stock has added HK$1.9b to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

View our latest analysis for GCL Technology Holdings

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the last half decade, GCL Technology Holdings became profitable. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
SEHK:3800 Earnings Per Share Growth May 22nd 2024

We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of GCL Technology Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered GCL Technology Holdings' share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for GCL Technology Holdings shareholders, and that cash payout contributed to why its TSR of 239%, over the last 5 years, is better than the share price return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in GCL Technology Holdings had a tough year, with a total loss of 16%, against a market gain of about 6.5%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 28%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for GCL Technology Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Hong Kong exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether GCL Technology Holdings is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.