Pop Mart International Group Valuation
Is 9992 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
0/6Valuation Score 0/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 9992 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 9992 (HK$80.25) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$50.19)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 9992 is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9992?
Key metric: As 9992 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 9992's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 64.8x |
| Earnings | CN¥1.53b |
| Market Cap | CN¥99.03b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 11.5x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 42.6x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.9x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 9992's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 9.3x | ||
1929 Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group | 10.9x | 7.3% | HK$70.3b |
590 Luk Fook Holdings (International) | 4.9x | 2.0% | HK$8.8b |
178 Sa Sa International Holdings | 13.5x | 4.1% | HK$2.0b |
398 Oriental Watch Holdings | 7.8x | n/a | HK$1.8b |
9992 Pop Mart International Group | 64.8x | 35.0% | HK$106.4b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9992 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (64.8x) compared to the peer average (9.2x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 9992's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Specialty Retail Industry?
| 1 Company | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
84 Stelux Holdings International | 0.2x | n/a | US$10.26m |
| 1 Company | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9992 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (64.8x) compared to the Hong Kong Specialty Retail industry average (9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 9992's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 64.8x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 20x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9992 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (64.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | HK$83.45 | HK$77.02 -7.7% | 12.0% | HK$88.08 | HK$50.27 | n/a | 14 |
| Nov ’25 | HK$71.50 | HK$77.02 +7.7% | 12.0% | HK$88.08 | HK$50.27 | n/a | 14 |
| Oct ’25 | HK$53.25 | HK$53.85 +1.1% | 6.3% | HK$60.87 | HK$48.66 | n/a | 13 |
| Sep ’25 | HK$45.85 | HK$53.34 +16.3% | 8.5% | HK$61.01 | HK$42.40 | n/a | 13 |
| Aug ’25 | HK$40.30 | HK$43.33 +7.5% | 16.2% | HK$52.04 | HK$29.85 | n/a | 14 |
| Jul ’25 | HK$38.25 | HK$36.01 -5.9% | 19.6% | HK$47.72 | HK$25.75 | n/a | 14 |
| Jun ’25 | HK$37.10 | HK$35.33 -4.8% | 18.2% | HK$47.83 | HK$25.81 | n/a | 14 |
| May ’25 | HK$33.90 | HK$32.85 -3.1% | 13.5% | HK$39.95 | HK$25.86 | n/a | 15 |
| Apr ’25 | HK$28.75 | HK$30.03 +4.5% | 14.6% | HK$37.97 | HK$18.95 | n/a | 15 |
| Mar ’25 | HK$21.15 | HK$27.37 +29.4% | 14.5% | HK$32.56 | HK$19.85 | n/a | 13 |
| Feb ’25 | HK$18.08 | HK$27.33 +51.2% | 14.5% | HK$32.54 | HK$19.84 | n/a | 13 |
| Jan ’25 | HK$20.25 | HK$28.12 +38.9% | 13.9% | HK$32.93 | HK$20.08 | n/a | 13 |
| Dec ’24 | HK$22.95 | HK$27.97 +21.9% | 14.2% | HK$32.70 | HK$20.27 | n/a | 12 |
| Nov ’24 | HK$21.45 | HK$27.42 +27.8% | 14.3% | HK$32.00 | HK$19.84 | HK$71.50 | 12 |
| Oct ’24 | HK$23.15 | HK$26.78 +15.7% | 15.4% | HK$31.81 | HK$19.85 | HK$53.25 | 11 |
| Sep ’24 | HK$25.50 | HK$25.80 +1.2% | 14.1% | HK$32.00 | HK$19.97 | HK$45.85 | 12 |
| Aug ’24 | HK$21.75 | HK$23.33 +7.2% | 12.1% | HK$30.07 | HK$20.05 | HK$40.30 | 11 |
| Jul ’24 | HK$17.42 | HK$22.99 +32.0% | 13.2% | HK$30.00 | HK$19.12 | HK$38.25 | 11 |
| Jun ’24 | HK$17.54 | HK$23.65 +34.8% | 12.1% | HK$29.61 | HK$19.78 | HK$37.10 | 11 |
| May ’24 | HK$18.94 | HK$23.93 +26.4% | 12.0% | HK$29.99 | HK$20.03 | HK$33.90 | 11 |
| Apr ’24 | HK$21.40 | HK$26.21 +22.5% | 29.9% | HK$48.05 | HK$20.04 | HK$28.75 | 10 |
| Mar ’24 | HK$24.30 | HK$26.62 +9.6% | 34.9% | HK$48.07 | HK$13.82 | HK$21.15 | 10 |
| Feb ’24 | HK$25.50 | HK$25.71 +0.8% | 39.8% | HK$48.54 | HK$13.08 | HK$18.08 | 10 |
| Jan ’24 | HK$19.82 | HK$24.80 +25.1% | 40.1% | HK$47.60 | HK$12.82 | HK$20.25 | 10 |
| Dec ’23 | HK$17.20 | HK$23.42 +36.2% | 41.1% | HK$45.20 | HK$12.48 | HK$22.95 | 10 |
| Nov ’23 | HK$11.16 | HK$28.29 +153.5% | 37.6% | HK$44.90 | HK$12.40 | HK$21.45 | 12 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.
Discover undervalued companies
JD.com
US$51.3b
Operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People’s Republic of China.
9618
US$137.50
7D
3.7%
1Y
24.4%
Pou Sheng International (Holdings)
HK$2.9b
An investment holding company, engages in distributing and retailing sportswear and footwear in the People’s Republic of China and internationally.
3813
HK$0.54
7D
0%
1Y
-20.6%
Alibaba Group Holding
US$194.7b
Through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
9988
US$80.70
7D
-7.5%
1Y
5.9%