Wine's Link International Holdings Limited's (HKG:8509) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up

When close to half the companies in Hong Kong have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 9x, you may consider Wine's Link International Holdings Limited (HKG:8509) as a stock to potentially avoid with its 11.7x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Wine's Link International Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Wine's Link International Holdings

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Wine's Link International Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Wine's Link International Holdings?

Wine's Link International Holdings' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 12%. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 70% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been more than adequate for the company.

Weighing that recent medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 23% shows it's noticeably less attractive on an annualised basis.

In light of this, it's alarming that Wine's Link International Holdings' P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Wine's Link International Holdings currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Wine's Link International Holdings you should be aware of, and 3 of them don't sit too well with us.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Wine's Link International Holdings. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.