China Tobacco International (HK) Company Limited's (HKG:6055) Stock Is Going Strong: Is the Market Following Fundamentals?

China Tobacco International (HK) (HKG:6055) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 13% over the last three months. Given that the market rewards strong financials in the long-term, we wonder if that is the case in this instance. Particularly, we will be paying attention to China Tobacco International (HK)'s ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

View our latest analysis for China Tobacco International (HK)

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for China Tobacco International (HK) is:

26% = HK$692m ÷ HK$2.7b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2023).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each HK$1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made HK$0.26 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

China Tobacco International (HK)'s Earnings Growth And 26% ROE

Firstly, we acknowledge that China Tobacco International (HK) has a significantly high ROE. Secondly, even when compared to the industry average of 5.2% the company's ROE is quite impressive. This probably laid the groundwork for China Tobacco International (HK)'s moderate 20% net income growth seen over the past five years.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that China Tobacco International (HK)'s growth is quite high when compared to the industry average growth of 13% in the same period, which is great to see.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is 6055 fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is China Tobacco International (HK) Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

In China Tobacco International (HK)'s case, its respectable earnings growth can probably be explained by its low three-year median payout ratio of 25% (or a retention ratio of 75%), which suggests that the company is investing most of its profits to grow its business.

Additionally, China Tobacco International (HK) has paid dividends over a period of four years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Looking at the current analyst consensus data, we can see that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 31% over the next three years. Consequently, the higher expected payout ratio explains the decline in the company's expected ROE (to 20%) over the same period.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with China Tobacco International (HK)'s performance. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a sizeable growth in its earnings. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.