Cogobuy Group's (HKG:400) Stock Is Rallying But Financials Look Ambiguous: Will The Momentum Continue?

Most readers would already be aware that Cogobuy Group's (HKG:400) stock increased significantly by 94% over the past three months. However, we wonder if the company's inconsistent financials would have any adverse impact on the current share price momentum. Specifically, we decided to study Cogobuy Group's ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

Check out our latest analysis for Cogobuy Group

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Cogobuy Group is:

5.0% = CN¥223m ÷ CN¥4.4b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2020).

The 'return' is the yearly profit. So, this means that for every HK$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of HK$0.05.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Cogobuy Group's Earnings Growth And 5.0% ROE

On the face of it, Cogobuy Group's ROE is not much to talk about. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 6.7% either. For this reason, Cogobuy Group's five year net income decline of 20% is not surprising given its lower ROE. We believe that there also might be other aspects that are negatively influencing the company's earnings prospects. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared Cogobuy Group's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 8.5% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Cogobuy Group is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Cogobuy Group Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

While the company did payout a portion of its dividend in the past, it currently doesn't pay a dividend. This implies that potentially all of its profits are being reinvested in the business.

Conclusion

In total, we're a bit ambivalent about Cogobuy Group's performance. Even though it appears to be retaining most of its profits, given the low ROE, investors may not be benefitting from all that reinvestment after all. The low earnings growth suggests our theory correct. Wrapping up, we would proceed with caution with this company and one way of doing that would be to look at the risk profile of the business. You can see the 2 risks we have identified for Cogobuy Group by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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