Is Centenary United Holdings (HKG:1959) A Risky Investment?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Centenary United Holdings Limited (HKG:1959) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt A Problem?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for Centenary United Holdings

What Is Centenary United Holdings's Debt?

As you can see below, Centenary United Holdings had CN¥290.0m of debt at June 2024, down from CN¥360.6m a year prior. However, it also had CN¥127.8m in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥162.2m.

How Healthy Is Centenary United Holdings' Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Centenary United Holdings had liabilities of CN¥304.2m due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥196.2m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥127.8m and CN¥56.4m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥316.1m.

This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥62.3m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. At the end of the day, Centenary United Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Centenary United Holdings will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

Over 12 months, Centenary United Holdings made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to CN¥1.6b, which is a fall of 17%. That's not what we would hope to see.

Caveat Emptor

While Centenary United Holdings's falling revenue is about as heartwarming as a wet blanket, arguably its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss is even less appealing. Indeed, it lost a very considerable CN¥115m at the EBIT level. If you consider the significant liabilities mentioned above, we are extremely wary of this investment. That said, it is possible that the company will turn its fortunes around. But we think that is unlikely, given it is low on liquid assets, and burned through CN¥7.2m in the last year. So we think this stock is risky, like walking through a dirty dog park with a mask on. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Centenary United Holdings that you should be aware of.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.