Revenues Not Telling The Story For Milan Station Holdings Limited (HKG:1150) After Shares Rise 78%

Milan Station Holdings Limited (HKG:1150) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 78% gain and recovering from prior weakness. But the gains over the last month weren't enough to make shareholders whole, as the share price is still down 5.3% in the last twelve months.

Even after such a large jump in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Milan Station Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.7x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Specialty Retail industry in Hong Kong, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.4x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

See our latest analysis for Milan Station Holdings

How Has Milan Station Holdings Performed Recently?

For instance, Milan Station Holdings' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Milan Station Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

Milan Station Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 14% decrease to the company's top line. Regardless, revenue has managed to lift by a handy 21% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 16% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Milan Station Holdings' P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Bottom Line On Milan Station Holdings' P/S

Milan Station Holdings' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that Milan Station Holdings' average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's hard to accept the current share price as fair value.

Having said that, be aware Milan Station Holdings is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.

If you're unsure about the strength of Milan Station Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.