Central China Management (SEHK:9982) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 9982 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

9982 (HK$1.17) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$2.81)

9982 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	3/6

9982 Stock Overview

Central China Management Company Limited provides project management services for property development projects in China.

Rewards

Trading at 58.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 11.87% per year

Earnings grew by 13% over the past year

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Dividend of 16.04% is not well covered by earnings

Central China Management Competitors

Greenland Hong Kong Holdings

SEHK:337

HK$4.3b

Datang Group Holdings

SEHK:2117

HK$4.8b

Tomson Group

SEHK:258

HK$3.8b

China Merchants Land

SEHK:978

HK$3.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Central China Management
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	HK$1.17
52 Week High	HK$2.29
52 Week Low	HK$0.80
Beta	0
1 Month Change	-4.88%
3 Month Change	-4.10%
1 Year Change	-48.68%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-55.68%

Recent News & Updates

Mar 17

Central China Management Company Limited (HKG:9982) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know

Investors in Central China Management Company Limited ( HKG:9982 ) had a good week, as its shares rose 10.0% to close...

Shareholder Returns

	9982	HK Real Estate	HK Market
7D	-2.5%	3.3%	0.5%
1Y	-48.7%	-31.2%	-20.3%

Return vs Industry: 9982 underperformed the Hong Kong Real Estate industry which returned -31.2% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 9982 underperformed the Hong Kong Market which returned -20.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 9982's price volatile compared to industry and market?
9982 volatility
9982 Average Weekly Movement	5.2%
Real Estate Industry Average Movement	6.1%
Market Average Movement	6.9%
10% most volatile stocks in HK Market	13.7%
10% least volatile stocks in HK Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: 9982 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Hong Kong stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 9982's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2020	1,238	Xiaoteng Ma	https://www.centralchinamgt.com

Central China Management Company Limited provides project management services for property development projects in China. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Zhengzhou, the People’s Republic of China. Central China Management Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Joy Bright Investments Limited.

Central China Management Fundamentals Summary

How do Central China Management's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
9982 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥3.28b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥770.16m
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥1.30b

4.3x

P/E Ratio

2.5x

P/S Ratio

Is 9982 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
9982 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥1.30b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥0
Gross Profit	CN¥1.30b
Other Expenses	CN¥531.29m
Earnings	CN¥770.16m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.23
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	59.18%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did 9982 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

16.0%

Current Dividend Yield

62%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 9982 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9982?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 9982. This is calculated by dividing 9982's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 9982's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥3.28b

9982 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	1.2x
PEG Ratio	0.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 9982's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

9982 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 9982 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	6.4x
337 Greenland Hong Kong Holdings	1.7x	n/a	HK$4.3b
2117 Datang Group Holdings	5.6x	n/a	HK$4.8b
258 Tomson Group	13.3x	n/a	HK$3.8b
978 China Merchants Land	5x	n/a	HK$3.3b
9982 Central China Management	4.3x	11.9%	HK$3.8b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9982 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.3x) compared to the peer average (6.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 9982's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Real Estate Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9982 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.3x) compared to the Hong Kong Real Estate industry average (6.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9982's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9982 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4.3x
Fair PE Ratio	4.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9982 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.8x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9982 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9982 (HK$1.17) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$2.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9982 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: 9982 is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.4x)

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Future Growth

How is Central China Management forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

11.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 9982's forecast earnings growth (11.9% per year) is above the savings rate (1.6%).

Earnings vs Market: 9982's earnings (11.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Hong Kong market (16.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 9982's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 9982's revenue (11.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Hong Kong market (10.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 9982's revenue (11.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 9982's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (33.6%)

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Past Performance

How has Central China Management performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

23.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 9982 has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 9982's current net profit margins (59.2%) are higher than last year (59.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 9982's earnings have grown significantly by 23.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 9982's earnings growth over the past year (13%) is below its 5-year average (23.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 9982 earnings growth over the past year (13%) exceeded the Real Estate industry 9.7%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 9982's Return on Equity (33.2%) is considered high.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Central China Management's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 9982's short term assets (CN¥2.8B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥573.8M).

Long Term Liabilities: 9982's short term assets (CN¥2.8B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥1.6M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 9982 is debt free.

Reducing Debt: 9982 has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 9982 has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: 9982 has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Central China Management current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

16.04%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 9982's dividend (16.04%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (2.71%).

High Dividend: 9982's dividend (16.04%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Hong Kong market (7.81%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Too early to tell whether 9982's dividend payments have been stable as they only just started paying a dividend.

Growing Dividend: Too early to tell if 9982's dividend payments are increasing as they only just started paying a dividend.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonable payout ratio (61.8%), 9982's dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (103.1%), 9982's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.7yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Xiaoteng Ma (45 yo)

0.42

Tenure

CN¥6,051,000

Compensation

Mr. Ma Xiaoteng has been an Executive Director of Central China Management Company Limited since November 6, 2020 and the Chief Executive Officer since February 14, 2022. Mr. Ma is mainly responsible for o...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Xiaoteng's total compensation ($USD903.00K) is above average for companies of similar size in the Hong Kong market ($USD421.54K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Xiaoteng's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Board Members

Experienced Board: 9982's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.7 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/07/02 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/30 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31