Times China Holdings (HKG:1233) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Times China Holdings Limited (HKG:1233) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Times China Holdings

What Is Times China Holdings's Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at December 2020 Times China Holdings had debt of CN¥62.5b, up from CN¥53.3b in one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥33.5b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥28.9b.

How Healthy Is Times China Holdings' Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Times China Holdings had liabilities of CN¥108.1b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥47.5b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥33.5b in cash and CN¥15.4b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥106.6b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

The deficiency here weighs heavily on the CN¥18.6b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Times China Holdings would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

Times China Holdings has net debt to EBITDA of 3.4 suggesting it uses a fair bit of leverage to boost returns. But the high interest coverage of 7.1 suggests it can easily service that debt. Unfortunately, Times China Holdings's EBIT flopped 13% over the last four quarters. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Times China Holdings's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Times China Holdings recorded free cash flow of 22% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.

Our View

We'd go so far as to say Times China Holdings's level of total liabilities was disappointing. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like Times China Holdings has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Times China Holdings (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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