China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited (HKG:81) Surges 28% Yet Its Low P/S Is No Reason For Excitement

Despite an already strong run, China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Limited (HKG:81) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 28% in the last thirty days. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 60%.

Although its price has surged higher, China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the Real Estate industry in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 0.7x and even P/S above 3x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

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See our latest analysis for China Overseas Grand Oceans Group

How Has China Overseas Grand Oceans Group Performed Recently?

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining revenue compares poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth in their revenues on average. Perhaps the P/S remains low as investors think the prospects of strong revenue growth aren't on the horizon. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

Keen to find out how analysts think China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the industry for P/S ratios like China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 24% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 33% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should bring diminished returns, with revenue decreasing 12% as estimated by the seven analysts watching the company. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 3.7%.

In light of this, it's understandable that China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's P/S would sit below the majority of other companies. However, shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

The Key Takeaway

China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's stock price has surged recently, but its but its P/S still remains modest. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

With revenue forecasts that are inferior to the rest of the industry, it's no surprise that China Overseas Grand Oceans Group's P/S is on the lower end of the spectrum. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for China Overseas Grand Oceans Group you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.