Million Cities Holdings Limited's (HKG:2892) Shares Climb 36% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

The Million Cities Holdings Limited (HKG:2892) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 36%. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 18% over that time.

Since its price has surged higher, Million Cities Holdings may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 11.2x, since almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 8x and even P/E's lower than 4x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

For instance, Million Cities Holdings' receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Million Cities Holdings

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Million Cities Holdings will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Is There Enough Growth For Million Cities Holdings?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the market for P/E ratios like Million Cities Holdings' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 65%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 70% in aggregate. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 21% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Million Cities Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Million Cities Holdings' P/E?

The large bounce in Million Cities Holdings' shares has lifted the company's P/E to a fairly high level. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Million Cities Holdings revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Million Cities Holdings (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Million Cities Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.