Tomson Group Limited (HKG:258) Stock Rockets 27% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

Tomson Group Limited (HKG:258) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 73% in the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, Tomson Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 42.4x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Hong Kong, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 11x and even P/E's below 6x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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Recent times have been quite advantageous for Tomson Group as its earnings have been rising very briskly. The P/E is probably high because investors think this strong earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Tomson Group

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Tomson Group will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Is There Enough Growth For Tomson Group?

Tomson Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 295% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, incredibly EPS has fallen 46% in total from three years ago, which is quite disappointing. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 19% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Tomson Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Tomson Group's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Tomson Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for Tomson Group that we have uncovered.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.