Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited's (HKG:719) 30% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited (HKG:719) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 30% gain in the last month alone. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 59%.

Although its price has surged higher, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical's P/E ratio of 12.1x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Hong Kong is also close to 11x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/E.

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For instance, Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Some Growth For Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 12%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 13% in total. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 19% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's curious that Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical's P/E is also back up to the market median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical that you need to take into consideration.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.