Revenues Not Telling The Story For Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:1643) After Shares Rise 32%

Modern Chinese Medicine Group Co., Ltd. (HKG:1643) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 32% gain in the last month alone. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 32%.

Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Modern Chinese Medicine Group's P/S ratio of 1.1x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Pharmaceuticals industry in Hong Kong is also close to 1.5x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Check out our latest analysis for Modern Chinese Medicine Group

How Has Modern Chinese Medicine Group Performed Recently?

For example, consider that Modern Chinese Medicine Group's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Modern Chinese Medicine Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Modern Chinese Medicine Group's to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 37%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk revenue by 25% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 10% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Modern Chinese Medicine Group's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Final Word

Modern Chinese Medicine Group's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We find it unexpected that Modern Chinese Medicine Group trades at a P/S ratio that is comparable to the rest of the industry, despite experiencing declining revenues during the medium-term, while the industry as a whole is expected to grow. Even though it matches the industry, we're uncomfortable with the current P/S ratio, as this dismal revenue performance is unlikely to support a more positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Modern Chinese Medicine Group (of which 2 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.