Some Shareholders Feeling Restless Over Tencent Holdings Limited's (HKG:700) P/E Ratio

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 21.2x Tencent Holdings Limited (HKG:700) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in Hong Kong have P/E ratios under 11x and even P/E's lower than 6x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

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Recent times have been advantageous for Tencent Holdings as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Tencent Holdings would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 56% last year. However, the latest three year period hasn't been as great in aggregate as it didn't manage to provide any growth at all. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 9.5% each year over the next three years. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 14% per annum, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that Tencent Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

Our examination of Tencent Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Tencent Holdings that you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Tencent Holdings, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.