Revenues Not Telling The Story For Qingci Games Inc. (HKG:6633) After Shares Rise 29%

Qingci Games Inc. (HKG:6633) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 29% share price jump in the last month. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 34% over that time.

Since its price has surged higher, you could be forgiven for thinking Qingci Games is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 2.2x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Entertainment industry have P/S ratios below 1.5x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

View our latest analysis for Qingci Games

What Does Qingci Games' Recent Performance Look Like?

With revenue growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Qingci Games has been doing relatively well. The P/S is probably high because investors think this strong revenue performance will continue. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Qingci Games will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

Qingci Games' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 31%. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year revenue frustratingly shrank by 52% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenues over that time.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to slump, contracting by 9.0% during the coming year according to the sole analyst following the company. Meanwhile, the broader industry is forecast to expand by 12%, which paints a poor picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that Qingci Games' P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From Qingci Games' P/S?

Qingci Games' P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Qingci Games currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S for a company whose revenues are forecast to decline. In cases like this where we see revenue decline on the horizon, we suspect the share price is at risk of following suit, bringing back the high P/S into the realms of suitability. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it'll be a challenging time for shareholders.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis for Qingci Games with six simple checks on some of these key factors.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.