CMOC Group Limited

SHSC:3993 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$162.8b

CMOC Group Valuation

Is 3993 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3993 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3993 (HK$5.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$12.41)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3993 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3993?

Key metric: As 3993 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3993. This is calculated by dividing 3993's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3993's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.4x
EarningsCN¥14.08b
Market CapCN¥151.17b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3993's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3993 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.5x
1208 MMG
45x63.1%HK$31.2b
2245 Lygend Resources & Technology
9xn/aHK$12.5b
3939 Wanguo Gold Group
22.3xn/aHK$10.6b
1378 China Hongqiao Group
5.6x5.5%HK$109.5b
3993 CMOC Group
8.4x6.5%HK$162.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3993 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.4x) compared to the peer average (20.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3993's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Metals and Mining Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
6890 KangLi International Holdings
1.5xn/aUS$26.47m
No more companies available in this PE range
3993 8.4xIndustry Avg. 9.6xNo. of Companies5PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3993 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.4x) compared to the Hong Kong Metals and Mining industry average (9.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3993's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3993 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.4x
Fair PE Ratio11.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3993 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3993 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$5.92
HK$8.50
+43.5%
11.2%HK$10.97HK$6.86n/a14
Nov ’25HK$6.80
HK$8.63
+26.9%
11.3%HK$11.06HK$6.92n/a13
Oct ’25HK$7.63
HK$8.75
+14.7%
13.0%HK$11.22HK$6.67n/a13
Sep ’25HK$6.36
HK$9.08
+42.8%
13.4%HK$11.40HK$6.63n/a13
Aug ’25HK$6.34
HK$9.20
+45.1%
10.6%HK$11.15HK$7.97n/a12
Jul ’25HK$7.14
HK$9.16
+28.3%
11.1%HK$11.15HK$7.96n/a11
Jun ’25HK$7.21
HK$9.26
+28.5%
14.6%HK$11.34HK$6.99n/a11
May ’25HK$7.42
HK$8.48
+14.2%
13.2%HK$11.20HK$6.99n/a10
Apr ’25HK$6.65
HK$7.19
+8.1%
14.6%HK$9.31HK$5.52n/a12
Mar ’25HK$5.00
HK$6.01
+20.2%
9.0%HK$6.71HK$5.29n/a11
Feb ’25HK$4.30
HK$6.01
+39.8%
9.0%HK$6.71HK$5.29n/a11
Jan ’25HK$4.27
HK$6.30
+47.5%
9.8%HK$7.66HK$5.41n/a10
Dec ’24HK$4.44
HK$6.33
+42.5%
10.6%HK$7.61HK$5.34n/a11
Nov ’24HK$4.55
HK$6.36
+39.9%
12.3%HK$8.11HK$5.26HK$6.8011
Oct ’24HK$5.03
HK$6.71
+33.4%
17.1%HK$8.76HK$5.27HK$7.6311
Sep ’24HK$4.69
HK$6.17
+31.5%
23.7%HK$8.83HK$2.97HK$6.3612
Aug ’24HK$5.23
HK$6.10
+16.7%
24.4%HK$8.82HK$2.99HK$6.3412
Jul ’24HK$4.10
HK$5.79
+41.2%
24.6%HK$8.48HK$3.00HK$7.1411
Jun ’24HK$4.14
HK$5.63
+36.0%
30.3%HK$8.64HK$2.53HK$7.2112
May ’24HK$4.79
HK$5.75
+20.0%
31.4%HK$8.83HK$2.58HK$7.4211
Apr ’24HK$4.75
HK$5.12
+7.8%
30.1%HK$8.84HK$2.66HK$6.6512
Mar ’24HK$4.64
HK$5.18
+11.6%
27.7%HK$7.64HK$2.65HK$5.0012
Feb ’24HK$4.76
HK$5.10
+7.2%
28.5%HK$7.80HK$2.70HK$4.3012
Jan ’24HK$3.60
HK$4.69
+30.3%
35.2%HK$8.05HK$2.61HK$4.2713
Dec ’23HK$3.63
HK$4.57
+25.9%
35.3%HK$7.86HK$2.46HK$4.4413
Nov ’23HK$2.69
HK$4.54
+68.7%
35.5%HK$7.80HK$2.44HK$4.5513

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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