China Hongqiao Group Valuation
Is 1378 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
5/6Valuation Score 5/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 1378 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 1378 (HK$11.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$28.77)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 1378 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1378?
Key metric: As 1378 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 1378's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 5.7x |
| Earnings | CN¥18.16b |
| Market Cap | CN¥103.12b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 4.2x |
| PEG Ratio | 1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 1378's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 8.4x | ||
2600 Aluminum Corporation of China | 7.6x | 7.0% | HK$133.2b |
486 United Company RUSAL International | 14.6x | 100.1% | HK$48.6b |
98 Xingfa Aluminium Holdings | 3x | n/a | HK$3.0b |
3993 CMOC Group | 8.3x | 6.5% | HK$163.7b |
1378 China Hongqiao Group | 5.7x | 5.5% | HK$111.1b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1378 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.7x) compared to the peer average (8.4x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 1378's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Metals and Mining Industry?
| 1 Company | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
6890 KangLi International Holdings | 1.5x | n/a | US$26.08m |
| 1 Company | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1378 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.7x) compared to the Hong Kong Metals and Mining industry average (9.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 1378's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 5.7x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 11x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1378 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | HK$11.72 | HK$14.62 +24.7% | 16.9% | HK$19.07 | HK$9.33 | n/a | 13 |
| Nov ’25 | HK$12.98 | HK$14.35 +10.6% | 14.7% | HK$19.33 | HK$9.46 | n/a | 13 |
| Oct ’25 | HK$12.96 | HK$14.02 +8.2% | 14.9% | HK$19.60 | HK$9.59 | n/a | 13 |
| Sep ’25 | HK$10.70 | HK$13.71 +28.1% | 14.6% | HK$18.04 | HK$9.71 | n/a | 14 |
| Aug ’25 | HK$9.90 | HK$13.17 +33.0% | 18.6% | HK$17.88 | HK$9.30 | n/a | 11 |
| Jul ’25 | HK$11.82 | HK$13.17 +11.4% | 18.6% | HK$17.88 | HK$9.30 | n/a | 11 |
| Jun ’25 | HK$12.90 | HK$12.24 -5.1% | 18.8% | HK$15.10 | HK$7.56 | n/a | 10 |
| May ’25 | HK$10.90 | HK$11.25 +3.2% | 17.5% | HK$14.66 | HK$7.58 | n/a | 11 |
| Apr ’25 | HK$8.80 | HK$9.66 +9.8% | 21.8% | HK$14.39 | HK$5.91 | n/a | 11 |
| Mar ’25 | HK$6.24 | HK$9.33 +49.4% | 24.5% | HK$14.54 | HK$5.97 | n/a | 10 |
| Feb ’25 | HK$5.70 | HK$9.33 +63.6% | 24.5% | HK$14.54 | HK$5.97 | n/a | 10 |
| Jan ’25 | HK$6.39 | HK$9.62 +50.6% | 21.4% | HK$14.60 | HK$6.87 | n/a | 10 |
| Dec ’24 | HK$6.13 | HK$9.75 +59.1% | 21.3% | HK$14.54 | HK$6.84 | n/a | 10 |
| Nov ’24 | HK$7.32 | HK$9.44 +28.9% | 23.5% | HK$14.21 | HK$6.26 | HK$12.98 | 9 |
| Oct ’24 | HK$7.67 | HK$9.35 +21.9% | 24.6% | HK$14.22 | HK$6.27 | HK$12.96 | 8 |
| Sep ’24 | HK$7.82 | HK$9.59 +22.6% | 25.9% | HK$14.29 | HK$6.29 | HK$10.70 | 8 |
| Aug ’24 | HK$7.52 | HK$9.66 +28.4% | 26.3% | HK$13.85 | HK$5.84 | HK$9.90 | 8 |
| Jul ’24 | HK$6.36 | HK$9.66 +51.9% | 25.7% | HK$13.72 | HK$5.79 | HK$11.82 | 8 |
| Jun ’24 | HK$5.67 | HK$10.27 +81.1% | 26.6% | HK$14.00 | HK$5.91 | HK$12.90 | 8 |
| May ’24 | HK$7.69 | HK$11.70 +52.2% | 17.1% | HK$14.39 | HK$8.34 | HK$10.90 | 8 |
| Apr ’24 | HK$7.52 | HK$11.49 +52.8% | 20.0% | HK$14.52 | HK$8.40 | HK$8.80 | 8 |
| Mar ’24 | HK$8.88 | HK$11.70 +31.7% | 18.3% | HK$14.69 | HK$8.50 | HK$6.24 | 9 |
| Feb ’24 | HK$9.30 | HK$11.76 +26.4% | 18.7% | HK$14.66 | HK$8.49 | HK$5.70 | 9 |
| Jan ’24 | HK$7.37 | HK$10.40 +41.0% | 29.5% | HK$14.10 | HK$5.77 | HK$6.39 | 8 |
| Dec ’23 | HK$7.30 | HK$10.01 +37.1% | 29.1% | HK$13.21 | HK$5.60 | HK$6.13 | 8 |
| Nov ’23 | HK$6.08 | HK$10.45 +71.8% | 25.2% | HK$13.14 | HK$5.80 | HK$7.32 | 8 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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