Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 98 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

98 (HK$7.17) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$133.36)

Is 98 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 98 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 98 (HK$7.17) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$133.36)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 98 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 98?

Key metric: As 98 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 98. This is calculated by dividing 98's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 98's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	3x
Earnings	CN¥921.94m
Market Cap	CN¥2.80b

98 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 98's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 98 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	8.2x
486 United Company RUSAL International	14.6x	100.1%	HK$48.6b
1378 China Hongqiao Group	5.7x	5.5%	HK$111.1b
2798 Perennial Energy Holdings	2.6x	n/a	HK$1.7b
3330 Lingbao Gold Group	10.1x	n/a	HK$3.6b
98 Xingfa Aluminium Holdings	3x	n/a	HK$3.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 98 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3x) compared to the peer average (8.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 98's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Metals and Mining Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
6890 KangLi International Holdings	1.5x	n/a	US$26.08m

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 98 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3x) compared to the Hong Kong Metals and Mining industry average (9.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 98's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

98 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 98's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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